McCain Forgets Economics of Drug War in Latest Immigration Row

With the latest border crisis, in which thousands of undocumented children have swarmed the southern border, Republicans and Democrats are yet again at loggerheads over how to resolve the immigration issue. A group of Republicans have rebuffed President Obama's initial request of a $3.7 billion emergency spending bill to resolve the issue, emphasizing the need for language in the bill to ramp up deportations. From John McCain (via USA Today):

"The best way to (stem the flow) is for planeloads of these young people to be returning to the country of origin and their families," Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., told CNN on Sunday. McCain said it will deter families and "coyotes" who solicit money to get children to the border because they will see it's an ineffective way to get their kids into the U.S. "Then it will stop — and not before," he said.

While McCain is absolutely right that these children need to be returned to their homes, he is completely wrong in asserting it will deter the coyotes. The reason for that is simple economics. The demand for their services is derived from the demand for people in Central America to seek better lives elsewhere. This is so because in many areas of Mexico and Central America, life has been completely destabilized by violent drug cartels. Until a way is found to counter the drug cartels and the havoc they have wrought, demand for such side effects as coyotes and the like will remain indefinitely. The chart below is from a Pew study, which tracks the growth of undocumented immigration from Mexico since 1980:

The numbers within the blue columns represent the annualized number of undocumented immigrants per year. By 2004, that number has increased ten-fold to 485,000 undocumented Mexican immigrants per year. That is quite an increase from the 40,000 per year starting in 1980. This is of course no coincidence, as during this time the US ramped up its foreign intervention in the War on Drugs, with extended forays into both Columbia and Panama, as well as combating the traffickers in Mexico. With the destruction of the Medellin Cartel in Columbia, Mexican cartels have now assumed the mantle of chief exporter of cocaine to the US. So, as the US increased enforcement of the drug war, all it did was really just increase illegal immigration to the US.

The effect of the cartels in the countries to south of the border can be viewed in another way, by looking to the country north of our other border. The question is, do we have a Canadian immigration problem? Are there towns in Washington, Montana, and North Dakota, passing all sorts of laws denouncing Canadian culture, customs, and delicacies? Are there calls to ban Molson Ice and Bryan Adams? Effigies of Bieber being torched in the streets?

While such things have occurred (some examples here, here, and here) in our southern states in reaction to Hispanic immigrants, such animosity is not prevalent with our neighbors north of the border (short of trying to find a way to send Bieber back, naturally). The reason this is so, because Canada is a stable country with a sound economy, bereft of violent cartels vying for control of the country. No need for Canadians to flock en masse to our borders because their standard of living is fairly good at home. 

The correct question to ask is: not what our next short-term fix for the immigration issue will be, but how do we help make Mexico and these other countries better so their people want to stay and live there?

You do this by finding ways to hinder the money supply for the drug cartels.  By outlawing drugs like marijuana and cocaine, as we did with alcohol, all it did was cede control of the markets for these drugs to criminal enterprise, with no legal competition. And just as with alcohol, these cartels sprouted up almost overnight, moving quickly to satiate the demand for these products as supply is only affected by prohibition, not demand. Supply the cartels and the likes of Capone have been more than happy to provide.

So before we get delusional with any sort of border quick-fixes such as high walls or advanced monitoring technology, let's not forget that these cartels are so flush with cash now that they are building submarines and labyrinthine tunnels to get around any measures we would put forward. Go ahead and built a life-sized replica of "The Wall" from Game of Thrones for all you will, it still won't work.

The best way the United States can help to bring stability to Mexico and other countries in Central America is to address our drug policy. While many may have an issue with legalization of all drugs, by merely legalizing marijuana, it could have a profound impact on the cartels' money supply. As noted in Vice during an interview with a federal agent on marijuana legalization:

“Is it hurting the cartels? Yes. The cartels are criminal organizations that were making as much as 35-40 percent of their income from marijuana,” Nelson said, “They aren't able to move as much cannabis inside the US now.”

So even with just two states legalizing marijuana and dozens of others doing so for just medical marijuana, the drug cartels are already being greatly affected by legal competition. Furthermore, the concept of addressing the cartel's funding is one right from the DEA's playbook. From a release on the DEA website about the HSBC fines for its role in funding the drug cartels:

"Without their illicit proceeds used to fund criminal activities, the lifeblood of their operations is disrupted."

Not only do we have proof that the small amount of legalization has worked, we also have federal officials acknowledging that the funding for the cartels must be disrupted. However, until politicians like John McCain want to realize that legalization of marijuana is the best way to disrupt the cartels and in turn, help to bring stability to Mexico and the rest of Central America, then almost any remedy for the immigration issue facing the United States will be addressing the symptoms of the problem, not the cause.



References:


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/07/13/border-children-immigration-crisis/12594927/
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL34215.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_Colombia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Just_Cause
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Drug_War
http://www.dallasnews.com/news/community-news/carrollton-farmers-branch/headlines/20130820-farmers-branch-votes-to-continue-rental-ban-fight.ece
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/07/english-only-law-proposed-government-mailings-arizona_n_2637994.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/11/arizona-mexican-american-studies-curriculum-constitutional_n_2851034.html
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2006/08/23/7048/buchanan-nativism/
http://news.yahoo.com/feds-cant-catch-cartels-cocaine-filled-submarines-010821526.html
http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1895418_1877436,00.html
https://news.vice.com/article/legal-pot-in-the-us-is-crippling-mexican-cartels
http://www.justice.gov/dea/divisions/hq/2012/hq121112.shtml